The political quagmire in Venezuela is now turning into an inconvenience, a crisis—and ordinary citizens are feeling the pinch. Reliable news sources reveal that the once prosperous oil-rich state is now on the brink. After the Bolivar plunged, the government decided to launch their own remittance service, the Ramessa, with Bitcoin and Litecoin as accepted coins.
While it did steel prices–now that cryptos are the only safe haven for citizens in the ravaged country, the nationwide electricity blackout from Thursday meant that less than four percent of the country had access to the internet. According to reports by NetBlocks Group, a UK based internet watchdog group, 96 percent of Venezuelans were offline by Thursday.
Good news is, the number has since improved, dropping to 80 percent according to their observation by Mar 10:
Coincidentally, this comes a month after Russia government said they will trial a cyber-defensive measure and see how effective their defenses are if they cut off their country’s internet from the rest of the world. Complete with a Digital Economy National Program that demands Russian providers to remain functional in the event of a cut-off, this is a strategic but a worrying, isolation trend similar to that of China.
As a digital coin, internet outages translate to cessation and therefore an inevitable drop of demand that automatically affect crypto prices now that Venezuelans are heavily reliant on Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a medium of exchange and store of value.
Investor expectations are high but Bitcoin prices are struggling. At the time of press, prices are flat-lining as BTC trend within a tight range. It is up 1.9 percent from last week’s close but as long as there is no confirmation of Mar 5 bulls bar and therefore no reversal of Feb 24 losses, there is a lot to be desired from Bitcoin (BTC) price action.
All the same, we shall maintain a bullish outlook on the world’s valuable coin. Once prices rally above our main resistance line, $4,500, aggressive traders should take advantage of under-valuations in lower time frames and load with ultimate targets at $6,000.
From a top-down approach, sellers are clearly in charge. In a bear breakout pattern, $4,500 is our immediate resistance level with the main breakout and liquidation level at $6,000. Therefore, while buyers have an upper hand in the short-term, there should be a comprehensive break and close above $4,500 and for a complete retest, rally to $6,000.
Before then, our trade assertions must be met and that means, first a close above this tight $1,300 with limits at $4,500 and $3,200. Any drop below $3,500 pours cold water on our trade plan exposing BTC to a possible drop to $3,200.
There are two counter bars with equally high volumes. Feb 18—37k and Feb 24 double bar bear reversal pattern with 36k. Both are important in our analysis. Thing is, for buyers to be in charge then there must be reversal of Feb 24 bears complete with above average volumes complementing Feb 18 bull bar and printing above 37k. Similarly, any break below $3,500 should have high transactional volumes above 36k of Feb 24.
All charts courtesy of Trading View—BitFinex
This is not Investment Advice. Do your Research.
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